Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 19.832395 21.573523 23.497689 25.802012 28.514191 31.640978 35.573062
2024-12-22 17.114395 19.375472 22.057830 25.545116 30.072930 35.932751 44.431688
2024-12-29 15.301023 17.821706 20.971039 25.333834 31.476986 40.295986 55.045072
2025-01-05 14.005461 16.669742 20.135391 25.190679 32.822574 44.880482 68.226573
2025-01-12 12.876429 15.568660 19.176325 24.650207 33.386994 48.364108 81.664850
2025-01-19 12.429388 15.304051 19.293127 25.642238 36.518496 57.353286 114.717636
2025-01-26 11.725012 14.605084 18.692853 25.409380 37.494117 62.638158 145.817591
2025-02-02 11.202607 14.109421 18.325801 25.474476 38.998556 69.779721 198.136235
2025-02-09 10.784163 13.723605 18.075830 25.682188 40.814301 78.728638 292.209342
2025-02-16 10.383016 13.329205 17.768608 25.735282 42.319439 87.904407 459.175470
2025-02-23 9.956352 12.865822 17.308542 25.445358 43.004083 95.186075 738.222228
2025-03-02 9.634681 12.539196 17.039105 25.468950 44.420611 106.323668 1745.722936
2025-03-09 9.283231 12.151772 16.648799 25.232293 45.213515 116.318624 8893.279938
2025-03-16 8.958414 11.788091 16.272222 24.980128 45.929679 127.185587 NaN
2025-03-23 8.668513 11.463467 15.938369 24.774646 46.737468 140.021084 NaN
2025-03-30 8.412747 11.179267 15.653505 24.635922 47.712903 155.887557 NaN
2025-04-06 8.115986 10.815841 15.208445 24.114854 47.463369 164.124777 NaN
2025-04-13 8.064380 10.841680 15.444268 25.070232 52.001546 221.064101 NaN
2025-04-20 7.844537 10.583646 15.157158 24.845963 52.719041 248.154133 NaN
2025-04-27 7.678847 10.406729 15.005142 24.908616 54.461050 297.664718 NaN
2025-05-04 7.541537 10.270145 14.917465 25.108583 56.798108 377.215339 NaN
2025-05-11 7.393103 10.108479 14.773229 25.159689 58.631969 475.228508 NaN
2025-05-18 7.212312 9.885631 14.502571 24.880558 59.093862 554.078922 NaN